Choosing Your DCF Assumptions: Guidance & Considerations
The accuracy of your DCF result hinges on the quality of your assumptions. Here's guidance on setting the key inputs:
Setting the Growth Rate (Revenue, EPS, or FCF)
This is often the most sensitive input. Consider:
- Historical Performance: Use the 5- and 10-year CAGR rates displayed as a starting point, but don't blindly extrapolate.
- Industry Outlook: Growing, mature, or declining?
- Company Position: Does it have a strong economic moat?
- Management Guidance: Consider company projections (treat with caution).
- Be Conservative: High growth (>15-20%) is hard to sustain long-term. Assume moderation.
For a deeper dive, see our DCF Analysis Guide.
Selecting the Discount Rate (Your Required Return)
This rate reflects the return you need for the investment's risk and opportunity cost. Higher risk = higher rate = lower intrinsic value.
- Risk Assessment: Consider debt, volatility, competition.
- Market Benchmarks: Average market returns (~9-10%) offer a baseline.
- Personal Hurdle Rate: Your minimum acceptable return.
- Margin of Safety: Our default 12% includes a premium. Adjust based on confidence.
Learn more in our detailed DCF guide.
Determining the Terminal Multiple (P/E or P/FCF)
Estimates the valuation multiple at the end of your forecast. Higher multiple = higher intrinsic value today.
- Historical Multiple: Examine the company's range in the charts.
- Industry Norms: Compare with mature peers.
- Future State: Slower-growing may mean lower multiple (12-15x); durable advantages might justify higher (18-20x+).
- Conservatism: Default 15x is moderate. Test different multiples.